New single-family Metro Atlanta home sales were up in November. The increase was lower than anticipated, signaling a slight momentum change in the housing market. Recent Commerce Department statistics show new home sales increased 4.3% during November. This equates to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 490,000 new homes sold. The number of homes sold in October was revised downward to 470,000 units (from previously reported estimates of slightly over 495,000 homes.)

Metro Atlanta Home Sales: An Analysis

New home sales comprise roughly 9.3% of the total housing market. The original forecast had been for 505,000 units in November. Despite falling short of projections, sales were up 9.1% compared to November 2014.

The increase is a positive sign to many economists who worried about a downturn in new home sales – especially in the wake of a recently reported drop in the resale of single family homes. According to the National Association of Realtors, previously owned home sales decreased 10.5% during November. The drop was blamed in large measure to the new disclosure regulations that caused delays in loan closings.

When a contract is signed to purchase a new home, that sale is immediately counted in the reported data. Those sales, therefore, were not affected by the new lending disclosure rules. Mortgage insiders say the new rules have added more time to the loan closing process.

December's existing Metro Atlanta home sales will be reported soon, and experts say a rebound is expected. The higher numbers are anticipated because of a tightening employment market which is slowly but surely increasing wages.

New home inventory increased to 232,000 in November, a rise of nearly 2.2% – the biggest jump in nearly six years. Still, the supply of new homes is down 50% compared to the housing boom levels. And, despite homebuilders across the country gearing up for new construction fueled by the promise of higher sales prices, inventory is still a concerning factor.

Economists say using November's recent sales trend, the current supply of houses would take 5.7 months to sell. In October, the supply was projected to take 5.8 months to sell. Contributing to the slight slowdown is the rise in the median sales price of a new home of .8% compared to this time last year. The median home price is $305,000.

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Metro Atlanta home sales in May were greater than in any other May since 2008, while home prices continued to rise. Sales are on a four-month trend in which they were higher than both the previous month and the same month in the previous year.

Many positive factors are contributing to a strong housing market this year. Job growth and wages are slowly improving, while rents are increasing rapidly and mortgages are becoming much more accessible. When these factors are coupled with continuing low interest rates, the result is a growing number of consumers with the confidence to buy or sell a home.

Completed transactions in May were 8.9 percent higher than in April and 3.5 percent higher than May 2014. The median sales price of homes sold has risen for 40 consecutive months.

Prices Increasing Along With Metro Atlanta Home Sales

Metro Atlanta home prices also continued to increase. In May, the median price was 7.8 percent above the price seen last year. The average month-over-month increase for the first five months of 2015 has been 3.6 percent.

Looking beyond the Metro Atlanta area, thirty-eight metro areas across the country reported higher sales on a year-over-year basis, with 11 reporting double digit increases in May.

The average days on market, or the number of days between when a home is first listed in an MLS and a sales contract is signed for all homes sold in May dropped seven days from April to 64, and two days below the average of 66 in last year.

The inventory of homes for sale increased by 0.4 percent from April, the first time back-to-back monthly increases occurred since May and June 2014. As home sales continue to grow, the months’ supply of inventory in May was 3.6 on a scale where six months indicates a market balanced equally between buyers and sellers.

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Existing Metro Atlanta home sales are expected to finish the year at their highest level since 2006 according to the National Association of Realtors’ economic forecast forum revealed at its 2015 Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo.

However, accelerating price growth and rising mortgage rates have the potential to change the expected finish.

In the most recent existing-homes sales report, sales surged to their highest annual rate in 18 months, showing a promising beginning to the spring homebuying season.

Nationwide, total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, jumped 6.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million in March from 4.89 million in February — the highest annual rate since September 2013 (also 5.19 million).

What's Driving Metro Atlanta Home Sales?

Sustained job growth and interest rates below 4% have been the catalyst behind the improvement in Metro Atlanta home sales where supply needs to increase measurably to meet the pent-up demand for buying.

Unlike the existing Metro Atlanta home sales market, demand for single-family new home construction remains weak, and the homebuilding industry is acting accordingly by focusing on multifamily rental housing. New home construction for first-time buyers is about half of the long-term average and the reason is simple: the decline in homeownership and marriage rates among young adults. Things are not projected to return to normal levels for the building market until at least 2017.

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Metro Atlanta home sales have fallen to their slowest pace in nine months, with sales of existing homes tumbling 4.9 percent last month.

Relatively low mortgage rates and steady job growth have not yet spurred the kind of activity from buyers or sellers, raising the possibility of either a spring rush, or another year of slack Metro Atlanta home sales.

Nationwide, few properties are being listed for sale, would-be-buyers are holding off, and the harsh winter weather is taking its toll on attempts to hold open houses.

Metro Atlanta Home Sales Expectations Not Happening

Weaker Metro Atlanta home sales in 2014 had set up expectations of a strong rebound in 2015, but so far, that resurgence has yet to appear. Even the addition of more new jobs over the past three months has failed to make much of an impact on overall Metro Atlanta home sales.

Builders haven't started ramping up any new construction either. Confidence among builders in the market for single-family homes in February fell two points to a level of 55 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released recently. Any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good rather than poor.

Average mortgage rates have held well below 4 percent for weeks, which you would think bodes well for a rejuvenated housing market in the spring. But only time will tell.

Metro Atlanta home sales are not the only area where numbers are down. Sales slid in all four major geographical regions of the country last month: dropping 6 percent in the Northeast, 2.7 percent in the Midwest, 4.6 percent in the South and 7.1 percent in the West.

In the meantime, you can get more information about news that may affect the Metro Atlanta home sales market in our section on Atlanta Real Estate to your right under Metro Atlanta Real Estate Categories.

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According to figures from the National Association of Realtors, existing Metro Atlanta home sales increased in December, reaching an annual pace nationally of more than 5 million sales for the sixth time in seven months. Median home prices for last year reached their highest level since 2007 but the total number of sales dropped 3.1% compared to the previous year.

The total number of existing Metro Atlanta home sales includes completed transactions for condominiums, co-ops, townhomes and single-family homes. Nationwide, this increased 2.4% to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million last month compared to 4.92 million in November. When compared to a year earlier, sales for last month were 3.5% higher.

In total, there were 4.95 million sales for 2014 which is 3.1% less compared to 2013. The national median home price for existing homes was $208,500, the highest figure seen since 2007 when it reached $219,000. This figure is 5.8% higher than 2013 when the median price was $197,100.

Metro Atlanta Home Sales Close Strong for the Year

Metro Atlanta home sales picked up in December, closing out a year that began sluggishly but which showed signs of improvement during the second half. Metro Atlanta home sales began to improve over last summer as inventory levels increased, prices moderated and economic growth began to accelerate. According to real estate experts, sales were much better during the second half of last year, up by 8% compared to the first six months of the year.

We'll keep you informed on Metro Atlanta home sales as we move through 2015. In the meantime, you can get more information about news that may affect Metro Atlanta home sales in our section on Atlanta Real Estate News to your right under Atlanta Real Estate Categories.

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More people closed on a Metro Atlanta home or condo last month, with sales of existing Metro Atlanta homes rising to the highest level since September 2013.

Metro Atlanta Home Sales Mirror National Numbers

The same trend that Metro Atlanta home sales are seeing holds true across most of the rest of the country as well. The National Association of Realtors says existing home sales rose 1.5 percent to an annual pace of 5.26 million. Sales were also higher than year-ago levels for the first time in a year.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun says, "Sales activity reached the highest annual pace of the year as buyers continue to be encouraged by interest rates at lows not seen since last summer, improving levels of inventory and stabilizing price growth."

The median price of an existing home that sold nationwide was up 5.5 percent from a year ago, the 32nd consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.

Foreclosure and short sales were down 9 percent from a year ago. Just 7 percent of all October sales were foreclosures and just 2 percent were short sales. Condo and co-op sales posted the biggest monthly gains, up 3.3 percent from September.

The median price for an existing home in October was $208,300, 5.5 percent higher than it was a year ago.

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Previously owned Metro Atlanta home sales climbed in September to the highest level in a year, pointing to growing confidence in the U.S. economy as employment firms.

Nationwide, purchases advanced 2.4 percent to a 5.17 million annual rate. Demand was up 1.9 percent compared with the same month last year before adjusting for seasonal patterns.

An unusual surge in Metro Atlanta home sales is predicted this fall due to a slowdown in home price growth and a shift in pricing power from sellers to one that more closely aligns with buyers' expectations. Home buyers who have been willing to wait for better deals are starting to be rewarded for their patience.

The number of Metro Atlanta home sales above list price in July was down nearly 7 percent from a year ago. These numbers would indicate that sellers are starting to realize that it's not really a seller's market any more.

Metro Atlanta Home Sales Vary By Area

Some areas have seen more moderate price growth year-over-year but have seen their "for sale" inventories also rise.

Areas with the fewest price drops tended to have smaller increases in median home prices and for-sale inventories.

Redfin analysts are predicting a surge in home sales in September and October. "We continue to see strong buyer demand as we head into fall," according to Redfin’s housing report, which shows the number of tours and offers picking up from July and into August.

"The buyer fatigue from competing against multiple offers, bidding wars. and tight inventory is diminishing. Additionally, the widespread increase in price drops is likely to give buyers even more confidence that they have regained some of the bargaining power lost last year."

You can read the full housing market report here.

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